New Survey: Arizona voters on President Trump, Congress and ESAs

(Phoenix, AZ) Data Orbital is pleased to release results from our latest statewide survey of Arizona's likely general election voters. The survey covered President Trump's favorability, a ballot test of the upcoming congressional races and the potential expansion of ESAs through Prop 305.  

Data Orbital commissioned this poll beginning Tuesday, June 12th and ending on Thursday, June 14th.

 

Trump Favorability

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Trump Favorability June 2018
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Trump Favorability Roll-Up June 2018

The following breakdowns show President Trump's favorability by party and the age make-up of those who are favorable and unfavorable. 

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Trump Favorability by Party Registration June 2018
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Trump Favorability by Age June 2018

Next, we look at President Trump's favorability over time.  There is a 4.5% decrease in his unfavorability and a 5.5% increase in his favorability from April to June.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Trump Favorability Over Time

Generic Congressional Ballot Test

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Generic Congressional Ballot Test Roll-Up June 2018

The following graph shows the breakdown of congressional preference by party with a higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans voting the party line.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Generic Congressional Ballot Test by Party Registration June 2018

As we compare congressional preference over time, we see voters becoming more decided with the recent survey showing the lowest percentage of undecided voters.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Generic Congressional Ballot Test Over Time

Proposition 305: Expanding ESA

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Proposition 305 Expanding ESA June 2018

A look at voter sentiment on ESA expansion over time shows a 5 point drop off in support since April with an increasing number of voters undecided.  

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll Proposition 305 Expanding ESA Over Time
 

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement: "We have seen national trends slightly favor Republicans in the last month and Arizona is no exception. President Trump's unfavorability has decreased 4.5% since April and Republicans have seen steady gains in the Generic Congressional ballots. Both of these indicators point to a more positive November for Republicans in Arizona. "

###

This poll of 550 likely general election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.17%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical general election turnout in Arizona. The poll was conducted over three days from June 12th-14th. Toplines and demographic data can be found here and cross tabs here

To receive regular blog updates, subscribe here.

Data Orbital