Congresswomen McSally in early lead to replace Senator Flake

(Phoenix - AZ) After weeks of anticipation, the field seems all but set in the GOP primary race to replace Senator Flake who recently announced he wouldn't be seeking a second term.  

As a follow up to the first survey released after Senator Flake's surprise announcement in October, Data Orbital recently commissioned a survey of likely statewide GOP primary voters. The dynamics of the race are likely set with former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Congresswomen Martha McSally both announcing their candidacies in recent days. They join former State Senator Kelli Ward who announced her candidacy earlier in 2017.

The all live caller survey asked likely GOP primary voters their opinion on President Donald Trump and their thoughts on the US Senate head to head. In the last Data Orbital survey from October, 71% of respondents were favorable to the President compared to a little more than 74% in our current survey. Nearly 17% of those surveyed viewed him unfavorable compared to 22% from our last survey.

It is clear that even with all that continues to unfold regarding this administration, Arizona Republican primary voters remain extremely supportive of the President. 

When asked about the US Senate race, voters are surprisingly decided on who they would vote for even though the race is a little over 8 months away.

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Unsurprisingly, Congresswomen McSally did the best in the regions she currently represents which include Pima and a handful of additional southern Arizona counties. Voters in Maricopa, which make up about 62% of  likely GOP primary voters still gave the edge to the Congresswomen with former State Senator Ward and former Sheriff Arpaio in a statistical tie at 20%.

George Khalaf, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement: “We have been tracking the race from the beginning and have seen numbers drastically fluctuate with each announcement. There was a lot of speculation regarding Kelli Ward's standing in the race following Sheriff Arpaio's announcement and it is clear his candidacy has hurt her drastically. With a little more than 8 months to go, this race is long from over but Congresswomen McSally seems to be out of the gate as an early leader."


This poll of 500 likely primary election voters was conducted through an all live survey that collected results 70/30 from land lines and cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.38 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical primary election turnout in Arizona. The poll was conducted from January 11th to 15th. The complete top line report can be found attached here and the cross tab's attached here.

Data Orbital