NEW SURVEY: Gaynor Increases Lead in Arizona's Secretary of State Republican Primary


Phoenix, AZ (July 31, 2018) - Data Orbital is proud to continue its tracking on the Arizona Secretary of State Republican Primary.  The latest survey was conducted from July 24th to July 26th, 2018 and polled 500 likely Republican Primary Election voters across Arizona. 


With 34.0 percent of likely voters being undecided, Steve Gaynor is at 44.28% as he challenges incumbent Michele Reagan who is at 21.69% in this survey.  

Comparing these survey results to Data Orbital's July 10-12 survey of the Arizona Secretary of State Republican Primary, the number of undecided voters has seen a large decrease. With the surveys being twelve days apart, Gaynor picked up 17.8 percentage points and Reagan dropped 4.7 percentage points.


Looking at where these gains occurred, there is a strong 16.4 percent decrease of undecided males over 55 and a 6.6 percent decrease in females over 55. Across Data Orbital's two surveys, the largest gains with 55+ demographic was for Gaynor, who went from a 21.2 percent share to 57.4 percent share of the male 55+ demographic. 


This trend is continued in the breakdown of candidate support by age, with Gaynor leading in the older age groups with over 50 percent of 55 to 64 year olds.


Breaking down the survey by gender, almost half of male respondents of the likely voter survey support Gaynor, with 31.1% being undecided on the race.

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: "Looking closer at Gaynor's rapidly increasing lead, we see him making gains with older voters that are not only a key demographic for primaries but also for any non-presidential election cycle. Counting down to the primary, both candidates will be looking to convert the remaining 34.0 percent of undecided voters who are mostly distributed across all demographics and regions" 

This poll of 500 likely Arizona Republican Primary Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.38%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical Arizona general election turnout. The poll was conducted over two days from July 24th-26th. All non-released questions prior to questions released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to the released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines, demographic data, and full survey methodology can be found here and cross tabs here.


Data Orbital is a full-service data analytics and survey research firm with local, state and national experience. Through combine data expertise with political intelligence Data Orbital advances causes, ideas and candidates. 


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