NEW SURVEY: McSally Grows Lead in Arizona GOP Senate Primary


Phoenix, AZ (August 22, 2018) - With three weeks of early ballot returns and only five days left until Arizona's Primary, Data Orbital has released the most up to date survey of the Republican Primary for US Senate.  The survey was conducted on August 21st and 22nd and polled 600 likely Republican Primary Election voters across Arizona. 


Current AZ02 Congresswoman Martha McSally currently leads the survey at 48.1% with former Arizona State Senator Kelli Ward coming in at 22.1%. Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio polls the lowest with voters at 17.6%, leaving 8.4% of voters currently undecided.

As national surrogates start to make appearances for candidates in the Grand Canyon State's late primaries, the survey shows that 39.9% of voters have already cast a ballot in early voting. With a history of early voting in the state, returns continue to climb as election day approaches.

Comparing these latest numbers with Data Orbital's daily track polling of the three-way race, McSally's support continues to grow with her margin over her opponents growing 16.4 percentage points since August 8th.


George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: "With early voting returns significantly up from previous election cycles and 39.9% of respondents in the latest survey having already voted, McSally's lead is only getting stronger as we get closer to election day. As all three candidates increase their campaign efforts targeting voters who have not voted, this race will continue to be one to watch to confirm the trends we are seeing of McSally as a strong front-runner.  Data Orbital will continue to track the US Senate and other statewide races through election day." 

This poll of 600 likely Arizona Republican Primary Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.00%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical Arizona general election turnout. The poll was conducted on August 21-22 and was compared to polls conducted from August 8th to August 21st. All non-released questions prior to questions released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here.


Data Orbital is a full-service data analytics and survey research firm with local, state and national experience. Through combining data expertise with political intelligence Data Orbital advances causes, ideas and candidates. 


 Data Orbital | 602.402.1238 |


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