NEW SURVEY: Ducey and Gaynor Lead in Democratic Surge Scenario
Phoenix, AZ (October 5, 2018) - With just over a month until Election Day, Arizona continues to be a state to watch as Democrats seek to capitalize on their party’s enthusiasm. Data Orbital is pleased to release the results of a statewide survey taken from October 1-3 that models the results if Democrats experience a midterm surge in turnout.
This survey gives Republicans just a five point ballot advantage over Democrats, at 39% and 34%. This puts Republicans - who had a 13-point ballot advantage in the last midterm - six points below their 2014 turnout and equal with their 2016 Presidential election turnout. Meanwhile, we modeled Democrats at two points above their 2014 and 2016 turnout and Independents three points up from 2014 and two points down from 2016.
Trump favorability provides helpful context for the survey results. Our results showed him underwater at 40.7% favorable and 51.3% unfavorable.
In the Arizona Gubernatorial race, Republican Doug Ducey has a 15.6% lead over Democratic opponent David Garcia. When we dive into the breakdown by party, Ducey holds the party crossover advantage, with 16.3% of Democratic support. Garcia sees only 4.7% Republican support. Ducey also has the upper hand with Independents, who favor him by 7 points.
Looking at the Secretary of State race, the results showed Republican Steve Gaynor with a 7.3% lead over Democrat Katie Hobbs. Again, the Republican candidate holds the crossover advantage, but by a narrower margin. Exactly 6% of Democrats favor Gaynor while just under 4% of Republicans selected Hobbs. With almost a quarter of voters undecided on this race, there is still room for movement.
George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: "As we look at these statewide results in the context of a Democratic surge, both Governor Ducey and Steve Gaynor show considerable strength. It is also interesting to note that Democratic voters appear more likely than their Republican counterparts to crossover on these statewide races. But with a month to go and many national political dynamics at play, turnout is going to continue to be the most important factor."
This poll of 550 likely General Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.18%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical Arizona general election turnout. The poll was conducted from October 1-3, 2018. All non-released questions prior to questions released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.
To view results not modeled for a Democratic surge, click here. Crosstabs available upon request.
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