NEW SURVEY: Sinema Leads McSally in Latest Survey


Phoenix, AZ (October 19, 2018) - With early voting underway in Arizona, Data Orbital is pleased to present results from its latest statewide survey of likely Arizona voters’ preferences in the US Senate race.

As we continue to maintain a high standard in our methodology and transparency, we are proud to announce that we are the newest members of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative. According to AAPOR, “The Transparency Initiative is an approach to the goal of an open science of survey research by acknowledging those organizations that pledge to practice transparency in their reporting of survey-based research findings”. This reflects Data Orbital’s mission of providing trusted survey research based on the highest standards.

This survey was modeled on two possible outcomes. One model allows for a Democratic surge, giving Republicans only a 5% ballot advantage compared with their 13% advantage in the last midterms.  The other is modeled on an average surge with a 9% Republican ballot advantage.

In the U.S. Senate race, both models shows Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema with a lead over Congresswoman Martha McSally. In the Democratic surge scenario, Sinema has an 8.1% lead while in an average surge, her lead tightens slightly to 5.4%. Meanwhile, just over 7% of voters remain undecided.

Data Orbital Democratic Surge Model US Senate Survey October 2018
Data Orbital Average Surge Model US Senate Survey October 2018

Breaking down results by party, we see that Sinema continues to take a larger percentage of party crossover voters, with over 13% of Republicans choosing her under both models while under 5% of Democrats chose McSally. Independents also break for Sinema by almost 20 points, but also remain undecided by the highest percentage.

Data Orbital Democratic Surge Model US Senate by Party Survey October 2018
Data Orbital Average Surge Model US Senate by Party Survey October 2018

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: "We are continuing to look to turnout as they key factor in these midterms. If Democratic voters turnout in high numbers, Sinema’s position looks very strong. However, if Republicans also maintain a strong turnout, the race will tighten. While Sinema still holds the lead under that scenario, we still have 19 days to go and over 7% of voters remain undecided. There is still time and room for movement in the race. With a little more than a week of early voting under our belt, we are on pace to hit a Republican ballot advantage that reflects the average surge scenario or better. We will continue to track ballot returns and the Republican ballot advantage to predict outcomes in races up and down the ballot." 

This poll of 600 likely General Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 3.99%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical Arizona general election turnout. The poll was conducted from October 16-17, 2018. All non-released questions prior to questions released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here for Average Surge and Democratic Surge. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here for Average Surge and Democratic Surge.


Data Orbital is a full-service data analytics and survey research firm with local, state and national experience. Through combining data expertise with political intelligence Data Orbital advances causes, ideas and candidates. 


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