NEW SURVEY: Sinema with Lead in Toss-up Arizona Senate Race


Phoenix, AZ (September 12, 2018) - As the battle for control of the US House and Senate heats up, Data Orbital is pleased to present the results on the US Senate race from the statewide survey conducted from September 4-6.

With the primary election behind them, both Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema have pivoted to a full focus on the general election. And while the race is shaping up to be tight, the results of our first post-primary survey show the Democratic candidate with a slight lead, just outside the margin of error. Congresswoman Sinema is at 46.1% with Congresswoman McSally at 41.8%. A little over 8% of likely voters remain undecided in the race.

AZ US Senate September 2018 Sinema McSally

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: "As we anticipated, this race is shaping up to be one to watch to the end. While Sinema currently holds the lead, both candidates are making a strong showing. Moderate and undecided voters may be the ones to decide this race, but turnout will also play a major role. With high voter turnout in Arizona’s primary, we will be working to predict likely turnout for each party in the general election, a factor for races up and down the ballot." 

This poll of 550 likely General Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.18%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical Arizona general election turnout. The poll was conducted on September 4-6. All non-released questions prior to questions released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.


Data Orbital is a full-service data analytics and survey research firm with local, state and national experience. Through combining data expertise with political intelligence Data Orbital advances causes, ideas and candidates. 


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